Residential Carpet’s Resurgence: Carpet’s marketshare has stabilized and soft surface could finally see growth – February 2025

By Jennifer Bardoner

After years of declines, industry leaders believe carpet has reached an inflection point and the pendulum is swinging back in favor of its use in the residential market. Herb Upton, senior vice president of product and revenue for Shaw, the largest carpet producer in the world, says the category’s performance is forecasted to land between -2% to 2% year-over-year in units, but the revenue forecast is brighter.

Carpet’s share has been dwindling for decades in both the commercial and residential markets, but the latter has been more substantial, especially since it accounts for over 60% of the domestic soft surface market in dollars, according to Market Insights estimates. But the sense of nesting ushered in by the pandemic, coupled with innovations in the industry and carpet’s enhanced style and attractive price point, are helping soft surface re-establish and elevate its place in the home-and, in some places, it never left. Jamie Welborn, senior vice president of soft surface product management for Mohawk, estimates that carpet still holds a 70% share in bedrooms.

Industry leaders expect carpet to remain around 35% of the market, but Upton notes that “it still holds a first or second position in the market depending on who’s doing the analysis.”

“Carpet is not the poor little child in the corner; it just doesn’t have the same dominant presence it had a decade ago,” he says. “In 2024, we did see a slight decline, but it was only low single digits, and several other categories fell further.” He notes that, though people are buying fewer square yards of carpet, they’re buying higher-value carpet. “So, from a dollar perspective, I would say it’s a resurgence,” he adds.

THE COCOONING EFFECT
With Americans spending more time at home-a trend that began well before the pandemic thanks to technology, studies show-they want their spaces to feel comfortable and personal, which carpet does well.

“We see today’s homeowners looking for depth and texture that you can only find with carpet,” says Travis Cramer, senior director of product management for Tarkett Home. “Carpet has that soft, inviting feel underfoot that hard surface can’t replicate, and today’s families are looking for ways to create warm, cozy spaces that feel like a sanctuary.”

Kenny Michael, director of product design for Shaw Floors, says homeowners are turning to denser options that offer sumptuous softness. And Welborn notes that, though textured cut piles remain the most prevalent, patterns are seeing the fastest growth.

“While factors like durability and comfort remain important, there’s a greater emphasis on style and design,” says Eric Ruppert, senior director of product marketing and category management for Engineered Floors, which is introducing five new loop patterns this year based on the “immense” growth it saw last year. “Consumers want options that allow them to express their individual tastes and create unique spaces.”

Stanton’s Instagram presentation showcases dramatic staircase runners, which marketing director Christine Zampaglione calls “the jewelry of the home,” allowing homeowners to create a focal point while also creating a safer environment. Liz Crow, vice president of innovation and design for Shaw, says this mentality also applies to offices and playrooms, and she expects that trend to continue.

“Social media has really given consumers the confidence and inspiration they need, without necessarily having to work with a designer,” Zampaglione says. “We’re seeing this transition of people really gravitating to pattern and color.”

TM Nuckols, president of The Dixie Group, reports that about half of the soft surface Dixie sells is either patterned or differentiated product and that the company’s mid- and premium-branded carpet outperformed the market last year. Stanton’s soft surface offerings, which focus on patterned and woven products, also outperformed the market, according to Zampaglione.

“Textural patterns are doing well,” Nuckols says. “If you’re wanting a rug or a runner, you might want a very distinctive pattern like an antelope look or heavy geometric patterns, for example, but for a wall-to-wall installation, most people will lean toward something that’s more neutral and a little safer. I call it textural.”

Shaw’s new NaturalTwist technology aims to make such patterns more accessible to consumers across the board, and Crow says they received “phenomenal feedback” after debuting to aligned dealers at last month’s Shaw Flooring Network convention. Part of a suite of innovations being rolled out following the company’s $500 million investment in its yarn facilities, NaturalTwist varies the pile height in loop pile constructions to create an organic texture without the need for multiple yarn bundles.

Welborn says that even homebuilders-which represent roughly 25% of residential soft surface demand and still often use carpet for bedrooms-are beginning to offer upgrades from base grade cut pile to patterned offerings. Ruppert notes that patterns tend to be less regional than color preferences.

“Do we sell beige cut pile?” say Upton. “Yes, but it’s usually channel-specific, and even with that you have a little bit more flair to the tonals. But I’ve seen single-family builders that are incentivizing and stressing upsells. Carpet wholesale costs can range between $5 to $95 a square yard, but the market average is around $8 a square yard. We’ve seen that figure rise due to the mix of what’s being sold.”

Crow and Zampaglione agree that the most popular patterns are foundational and not overwhelming, like small-scale visuals. But multiple sources report that color is getting bolder, with greens becoming the new neutral and purples emerging as the new color pop.

“Carpet styles have been nuanced in the last few years, featuring more muted and neutral colorations,” Welborn says. “This trend has been beneficial as many consumers prefer their floors to blend seamlessly with the overall room décor rather than stand out. However, this approach has also led to a lack of differentiation, and we are now seeing a growing demand for brighter and fresher color options.”

Dixie now offers custom colors across all of its soft surface offerings, as Nuckols notes that “color is often the first factor in home décor.” EF is enhancing its PureColor High-Def technology through new space-dying capabilities to “add color without adding to the price,” Ruppert explains, noting that the multi-tonal products contain up to 24 colors, allowing them to seamlessly blend into any environment. And Shaw’s new ColorShift, ColorShift Eco and ColorClarity innovations streamline the process of providing variegated colorations in line with market trends.

THE HARD SURFACE EFFECT
The shift toward hard surface has actually opened doors for carpet in some regards. “Carpet offers unique benefits that hard surface flooring simply can’t offer,” Cramer says. “Its comfort underfoot, acoustical properties and styling with texture and depth are key attributes that continue to drive sales in the soft surface category. While resilient flooring continues to perform well, we’re starting to see signs of maturity in the market for this category. This has really created an opportunity for carpet to remain relevant as homeowners look to create inviting living areas within their home.”

With hard surface now occupying an estimated 60% of homes’ square footage, the noise abatement and comfort soft surface provides are a complement that is growing in importance. Nuckols calls the imported and domestic tufted rug offerings in Dixie’s 1866 by Masland and Décor by Fabrica programs “a growth engine for the company.”

“Eventually, we know a lot of people come back for a rug after they put in hard surface,” says Zampaglione. “We’ve been fabricating rugs for over 20 years, and they have consistently become a more important part of our business.”

It’s difficult to put numbers to the impact fabricated rugs are having on the category, since retailers are increasingly offering their own fabrication services, but of the 80% of Stanton’s business that is soft surface, fabricated rugs now account for roughly 20% of that, Zampaglione reports. And Cramer says Tarkett Home’s Make the Cut fabrication program grew over 20% year-over-year in 2024. He expects that growth to continue as homeowners turn to area rugs to add warmth, softness and texture.

“Believe in carpet, but think about it differently,” Shaw president Tim Baucom advised dealers at the company’s recent Shaw Flooring Network convention. “Don’t just think about it as broadloom in the private parts of your home, think about it as broadloom, rugs and runners.” (For more perspective from the SFN convention, turn to page 76.)

Zampaglione notes that many consumers are still not yet aware of its custom offerings and the impact they can have versus prefabricated rugs, so this could become a more important part of the industry. The new displays Stanton is rolling out as part of its rebrand will showcase room scenes adorned with fabricated rugs. And Mohawk’s new displays for its premium Black Label Karastan collection feature strap sets that illustrate the different serging options available through its new Made to Order Studio platform, which offers custom-size rugs of all Karastan carpet styles.

“Fabricated area rugs are gaining importance in this category due to their customization ability for rooms, hallways and stairwells,” Welborn says. “In the upper end of the market, fabricated rugs are much more prevalent, with estimates over 50%. In the middle of the market, they are less important, since much of this carpet is neutral-colored cut piles less than 45 ounces per square yard.”

Our sources agree that while the majority of carpet sold is still neutral cut pile-due in part to the builder and multifamily markets-homeowners are increasingly turning to more premium, stylized options, thanks again to hard surface.

“Cost isn’t as big a factor anymore, because when most of the home is already hard surface, the price point’s kind of been set,” Nuckols notes, explaining that the cost of hard surface, including installation, is in line with higher-end carpet-which is seeing growth across the board, our sources report. “I showed a dealer a product the other day that’s $90 a yard wholesale,” he continues. “They didn’t flinch. They’re like, ‘That’s beautiful; I can sell that.’”

Whether it’s as a custom rug in the living and family rooms or wall-to-wall carpet in the bedrooms, homeowners are seeking a beautiful complement to their lifestyle and to the elevated look that the hard surface in their home provides. And shopping for carpet on a room-by-room basis allows them to flex their budget, especially with the proliferation of enhanced polyester offerings, which now provide better performance and styling thanks to ongoing innovations in the industry.

“Today’s base grade is not the base grade from five years ago; it’s made of better fabrics,” Upton says. “We’ve been very conscious to say, ‘Let’s move that segment up.’ There’s still $5 carpet, but if we can move people to $6 carpet, it’s a much better experience.”

THE IMPORTANCE OF PERFORMANCE
With carpet offering the comfort and style homeowners are looking for, Michael believes what has been holding it back in the marketplace are outdated consumer perceptions around carpet’s cleanability and durability. Select retail stores will be receiving new displays to illustrate the stain resistance of Shaw’s R2X chemically bonded fiber treatment, and demonstrations of the protection provided by Shaw’s LifeGuard Spill-proof carpet backing are planned for home centers, which is where most people shop for carpet first, before going to specialty retail, he reports.

“There’s still some PTSD from carpet 20 years ago,” Michael admits. “But the fibers today are not the same at all. So, it’s building it up and letting them know, ‘Hey, it’s okay. It’s going to perform; it’s going to clean.’”

Welborn notes that pet warranties have become a popular selling point, helping pet owners feel confident that their carpet will stand up to stains and time. According to a recent Forbes Advisor article, as of 2024, 66% of U.S. households (86.9 million homes) owned a pet. This has helped propel Mohawk’s AllPet-protected SmartStrand carpets to some of the company’s best-sellers, he says.

Reporting an increase in Tarkett Home’s carpet sales over the last 24 months-especially among Millennials-Cramer, notes, “This generation is focused on their family, including kids and pets. Having a durable and stain-resistant carpet remains a top priority for families, especially those with kids and pets.”

Zampaglione says Stanton has seen success with its pet-related polyester additions and is now creating a display just for its Pet Guard products. Other offerings with luxury performance fibers, like the supplier’s LION (Luxury Indoor Outdoor Nylon), have also done well, she says, so Stanton is debuting a performance polyester called POP (performance outdoor polyester).

“Luxury performance is a growing category, and I think it will continue to be a big story,” she says, citing LION’s bleach cleanability as a major selling point. “A lot of our outdoor products are used indoors because they feel good. And they’re not your grandmother’s outdoor rug from a decade ago.”

Ruppert agrees that bleach cleanability is key for today’s consumers and notes that while EF’s PureColor High-Def carpets were designed to offer enhanced resistance against stains (and fading), they can be bleach-cleaned.

“I’m bullish on carpet with the innovations that we’ve come out with, not only from the design side but also durability-not from walking traffic, more around living, whether you have pets, kids or an active lifestyle,” says Upton.

According to Shaw’s consumer research, shoppers today prioritize ease of cleaning and maintenance just as much as color, patterns and designs that capture their hearts, and these are immediately followed by durability. While Michael says “the practical consumer who’s really concerned about cleanability is going to be the hardest to convince,” this creates an additional runway for carpet with the right consumer messaging. And he notes that younger shoppers are more concerned with style, which speaks for itself.

“Assuming the economy does not worsen, the next five years are expected to be better than the last five due to pent-up demand and technological advancements that enable us to produce higher-performing and better-looking carpet,” Welborn says. “This optimism is fueled by the increasing number of Millennials becoming first-time homeowners. Additionally, carpet remains the best value in flooring, with significant technological advancements in styling, colorations and ease of care.”

Copyright 2025 Floor Focus 

Related Topics:Interface, The Dixie Group, Shaw Industries Group, Inc., Engineered Floors, LLC, Tarkett, Shaw Floors, Karastan, Masland Carpets & Rugs, Mohawk Industries