New York, NY, Sept. 16--More U.S. companies plan to hire staff in the fourth quarter than in the previous three months, marking the first quarter-to-quarter increase this year, a survey released on Tuesday said.
But the widely watched quarterly survey by staffing company Manpower, Inc. also found the number of companies expecting to cut payroll is up as well, and fourth-quarter hiring this year will not keep pace with the prior year.
On the whole, most companies expect to leave staffing levels as they are, and even sectors that traditionally add workers during the holiday season, such as retail, are showing less inclination to take on payroll than a year ago.
"There has been an increase in hiring intentions, but it is not positive enough for us to feel there is any job creation," Manpower Chief Executive Jeffrey Joerres said.
The Milwaukee-based company surveyed more than 35,000 employers across 18 countries and provided an in-depth look at the U.S. job market.
Of the 16,000 U.S. employers surveyed by Manpower in July, 22% said they intend to increase their work force in the fourth quarter. That is up from the third quarter, when the forecast predicted only 20% of employers would add to payrolls in the survey's weakest job outlook in 12 years.
Outside the U.S., the world's No. 2 staffing company said employers in the Asia Pacific region planned to add staff, indicating a rebound after the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome crisis. Trends in Europe were mixed with employers in Belgium expecting growth but firms in the United Kingdom forecasting a decline in hiring.
"Everyone has been waiting for the U.S. economy to provide a boost to other countries because the job situation has been difficult for such a long period of time," Joerres said.
While improved from the third quarter, expectations for the fourth quarter are lower than the previous year, when 24% of respondents said they would recruit more staff.
More companies plan to reduce staff, too, with 11% forecasting cuts in the fourth quarter versus 9% of respondents for both the 2003 third quarter and the fourth quarter of 2002.
Manpower said 62% of the employers interviewed plan to leave current staff levels steady, down slightly from 65% in the third quarter.
When seasonal fluctuations are removed, the employment outlook rose for the first time in 2003, Manpower said, although it did not provide a comparison with the year-earlier quarter.
Seven of the ten sectors included in the study expect to see hiring activity improve compared with expectations in the prior quarter.
Recruitment prospects in the education sector improved in the fourth quarter after seeing the weakest hiring in 27 years in the third quarter. Employers in the finance field were also upbeat.
Hiring in the manufacturing sector is expected to be stable compared with the third quarter but lower than last year. The holiday season led to a spike in hiring intentions in retail and wholesale trade over the prior quarter but is still slower than a year earlier.
"Last year retailers were looking at the holiday season with more optimism than they are this year," Joerres said.
