Small Business Optimism Rose to 91.5 in September

Washington, DC, October 8, 2024-The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded. Fifty-one percent of owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, down five points from August. Meanwhile, the number of owners reporting inventory gains fell four points to a net negative 13% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest reading since June 2020.

“Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines. Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.

Key findings include:

* The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell four points to a net negative 13% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest reading since June 2020.

* The average rate paid on short maturity loans was 10.1%, up 0.6 of a point from August. The last time it was this high was February 2001.

* Thirty-four percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down six points from August and the lowest reading since January 2021.

* A net 12% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, down three points from August and the lowest reading since March 2022.

* Fifty-one percent reported capital outlays in the last six months, down five points from August. The last time it was this low was July 2022.

* Seasonally adjusted, a net 32% reported raising compensation, down one point from August and remaining the lowest reading since April 2021.

* Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), down one point from August but remaining the top issue.