Small Business Optimism Rose a Half Point in December

  1. Home
  2. News
  3. Small Business Optimism Rose a Half Point in December
Small Business Optimism Rose a Half Point in December

Washington, DC, January 13, 2026-The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in December to 99.5 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. 

Of the ten Optimism Index components, two increased, three decreased, and five were unchanged. An increase in those expecting better business conditions primarily drove the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index fell seven points from November to 84, the lowest reading since June 2024.

“2025 ended with a further increase in small business optimism,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While Main Street business owners remain concerned about taxes, they anticipate favorable economic conditions in 2026 due to waning cost pressures, easing labor challenges, and an increase in capital investments.”

Key findings include:

  • Twenty percent of small business owners reported taxes as their single most important problem, up six points from November and ranking as the top problem. This is the highest reading since May 2021.
  • In December, both actual and planned prices fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell four points from November to a net 30% (seasonally adjusted). A net 28% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices in the next three months (down two points).
  • A net negative 3% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down five points from November and the lowest reading since January 2021.
  • The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions rose 9 points from November to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted), contributing the most to the rise in the Optimism Index. This was the first increase since July.
  • When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 9% rated it excellent (down two points), 54% rated it good (up one point), 34% rated it fair (up four points), and 3% rated it poor (down 2 points).
  • The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains rose six points to a net negative 1% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading of the year.
  • In December, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, unchanged from November. Beneath simple yes/no impact binary, there was a positive shift from those reporting a significant impact to those reporting a moderate or mild impact.