Small Business Optimism Down Slightly in Oct. but Remained Over 98

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Small Business Optimism Down Slightly in Oct. but Remained Over 98

Washington, DC, November 11, 2025-The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 0.6 points in October to 98.2 but remained above its 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index fell 12 points from September to 88, the lowest reading of this year.

Optimism among small businesses declined slightly in October as owners report lower sales and reduced profits. Additionally, many firms are still navigating a labor shortage and want to hire but are having difficulty doing so, with labor quality being the top issue for Main Street.

Key findings:

  • Thirty-two percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, unchanged for the second consecutive month. Before August, the last time unfilled job openings hit 32% was in December 2020.
  • In October, 27% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, up nine points from September and the highest level since the record high of 29% in November 2021. Labor quality ranked as the top problem and was 11 points higher than taxes, which ranked second.
  • A net negative 13% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down six points from September.
  • The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell nine points from September to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted). This component contributed the greatest to the decline in the Optimism Index.
  • In October, both actual and planned price increases fell from the previous month. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell three points from September to a net 21% (seasonally adjusted). Looking forward to the next three months, a net 30% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices (down one point from September).
  • The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains fell three points to a net negative 6% (seasonally adjusted). Not seasonally adjusted, 10% reported increases in stocks (unchanged), and 15% reported reductions (up three points).
  • In October, 60% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, down four points from September.
  • The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell three points from September to a net 20% (seasonally adjusted), the lowest level since April but remaining above the historical average of net 4%.