Small Business Optimism Down 2.3 Points in January

Washington, DC, February 11, 2025-The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.3 points in January to 102.8. This is the third consecutive month above the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 14 points to 100-the third highest recorded reading-after two months of decline.

“Overall, small business owners remain optimistic regarding future business conditions, but uncertainty is on the rise,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Hiring challenges continue to frustrate Main Street owners as they struggle to find qualified workers to fill their many open positions. Meanwhile, fewer plan capital investments as they prepare for the months ahead.”

Key findings include:

• The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve fell five points from December to a net 47% (seasonally adjusted).
• Eighteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, down two points from December and matching labor quality as the top issue. The last time it was this low was in November 2021.
• The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell two points from December to a net 22% (seasonally adjusted).
• Seasonally adjusted, a net 26% plan price hikes in January, down two points from December.
• Thirty-five percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, unchanged from December.
• Twenty percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, down seven points from December.
• A net 3% of owners reported that their last loan was harder to get than in previous attempts (down one point). The last time it was this low was June 2022.
• A net 0% (seasonally adjusted) of owners plan inventory investment in the coming months, down six points from December’s highest reading since December 2021.