Small Business Optimism Declined Two Points to 98.8 in September

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Small Business Optimism Declined Two Points to 98.8 in September

Washington, DC, October 14, 2025-The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined two points in September to 98.8. This was the first decline in three months, though it remains above the survey’s 52-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose seven points from August to 100, the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years.

“Optimism among small business owners decreased in September. While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg.

Key findings include:

  • Supply chain and inflation issues stood out as a key problem in the report. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices rose three points from August to a net 24% (seasonally adjusted). A net 31% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points from August.
  • Fourteen percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input costs), up three points from August.
  • In September, 64% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, up ten points from August.
  • A net negative 7% (seasonally adjusted) of owners viewed current inventory stocks as “too low” in September, down seven points from August. This was the largest monthly decline in the survey’s history.
  • One bright spot was actual earnings changes (the net percent of owners reporting higher versus lower profits), which increased three points in September, up to its highest level since December 2021.
  • The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 11 points from August to a net 23% (seasonally adjusted).
  • In September, 18% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down three points from August and tying with taxes as the top single most important problem.