New York, September 22--Despite a rocky third quarter, retailers are anticipating a strong holiday shopping season, though not as robust as last year's spending spree.
The National Retail Federation, a trade group, is estimating a 4.5% increase over last year's holiday shopping season, which it defines as sales in November and December for clothing, home furnishings, electronics, sporting goods, books, music and general-merchandise stores. Total holiday spending is expected to rise to $219.9 billion from $210.4 billion last year.
"Although consumer spending has been inconsistent in recent months, we expect the holiday season to bring more stability to the industry," says the trade group's chief economist Rosalind Wells, who predicts that home-related merchandise and consumer electronics will sell well, and that trendy fashions should boost clothing sales.
The holiday season, which the trade group estimates accounts for nearly one-quarter of annual retail sales, will be affected by higher energy costs, rising interest rates, geopolitical threats and slow income growth, Ms. Wells says. Sales in last year's holiday season rose 5.1% from the year before, the largest increase since 1999.
