Researcher Says Housing Bad News Not Over

Minneapolis, MN, June 28, 2010--Housing researcher John McIlwain predicted that a combination of economic, demographic and regulatory trends over the next decade will create “a new normal” in housing markets across the United States, according to a story in MinnPost.com.

Speaking at an Urban Land Institute of Minnesota gathering, he described a difficult near-term and a more hopeful, but changed, long-term picture for the housing market.

McIlwain, a senior fellow at the Urban Land Institute in Washington, D.C., and author of a reaserch paper titled “Housing in America: The Next Decade,” predicted that many central cities will experience strong demand for housing, with the strongest markets “in places that provide a vibrant 24/7 lifestyle.”

He predicted that home ownership will decline to more historical levels, and rental market will grow. People seeking an urban lifestyle but not in a “big city” will look to live in suburban town centers that have emerged around the country.

"This is going to be a long slow recovery” he said, noting that in the next couple of years there is “a lot of bad news ahead of us” in both declining home values and growing foreclosures.

While home values nationwide have declined 25 to 30%, “they still have further to fall,” he said, estimating another 10% decline before stabilizing next year.