Regional Fed Says Odds of Recession Grow

San Francisco, CA, Nov. 15, 2011 -- The odds of a U.S. recession in early 2012 have grown as a result of Europe’s debt crisis, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

They put the odds at higher than 50%, especially if a debt default occurs.

“Prudence suggests that the fragile state of the U.S. economy would not easily withstand turbulence coming across the Atlantic,” economist Travis Berge, research associate Early Elias and research advisor Oscar Jorda wrote in a paper released by the bank.

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