Realtors Expect Housing Improvement in 2012

Anaheim, CA, Nov. 15, 2011 -- Gradual improvement is expected in the housing market next year and beyond, according to projections at a residential forum here at the 2011 Realtors Conference & Expo.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, said home sales should be stronger.

“Tight mortgage credit conditions have been holding back home buyers all year, and consumer confidence has been shaky recently,” he said.

“Nonetheless, there is a sizeable pent-up demand based on population growth, employment levels and a doubling-up phenomenon that can’t continue indefinitely. This demand could quickly stimulate the market when conditions improve.”

Yun projects growth in Gross Domestic Product to be 1.8 percent this year, then rising moderately at a rate of 2.2 percent in 2012. With job growth of 1.7 to 2.2 million next year, the unemployment rate is expected to decline to 8.7 percent by the second half of 2012.

Mortgage interest rates should gradually rise from recent record lows and reach 4.5 percent by the middle of 2012.

“Housing affordability conditions, based on the relationship between median home prices, mortgage interest rates, and median family income, have been at a record high this year,” Yun said.

“Very favorable affordability conditions will dominate next year as well, which will probably be the second best year on record dating back to 1970. Our hope is that credit restrictions will ease and allow more home buyers to take advantage of current opportunities.”

Existing-home sales are forecast to edge up about 1 percent this year, and then rise another 4 to 5 percent in 2012. Based on NAR’s current projection model, existing-home sales would total 4.96 million in 2011.