Port Activity Expected to Remain Bustling Through Spring

Washington, DC, March 11, 2025-Amid continuing tariff turmoil, imports at the nation’s major container ports are expected to remain elevated through this spring but volume could see year-over-year drops this summer, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers are continuing to bring as much merchandise into the country ahead of rising tariffs as possible,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. “The on-again, off-again tariffs against Canada and Mexico won’t have a direct impact on port volumes because most of those goods move by truck or rail. But new tariffs on goods from China that have already doubled from 10% to 20% are a concern, as well as uncertainty over ‘reciprocal’ tariffs that could start in April. Retailers have been working on supply chain diversification, but that doesn’t happen overnight. In the meantime, tariffs are taxes on imports ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, and American families will pay more as long as they are in place.”

President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from China in February, then increased the amount to 20% last week. A 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico first announced in February was delayed until last Tuesday, then put on hold for a month for goods compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade pact signed during Trump’s first administration.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said imports from all trading partners could also be affected by a new fee between $1 million and $1.5 million for each time a Chinese-built ship docks at a U.S. port being considered by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” Hackett said. Carriers will likely make more use of larger vessels and consolidate calls at major ports rather than making multiple stops at smaller ports. “Ports accommodated the surge in import volume in the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, but this will place additional pressure on the supply chain while also harming the nation’s smaller ports.”