NRF Issues Pessimistic Holiday Shopping Forecast

Washington, DC, Oct. 6, 2009--The National Retail Federation, usually bullish about holiday sales, predicts a 1 percent decline in total sales to $437.6 billion for November and December combined.

The projection from the world's largest retail trade group comes amid forecasts that U.S. retailers saw a key measure of sales drop in September for the 13th month in a row compared with a year earlier.

The NRF is less optimistic this year than several other groups offering holiday sales forecasts.

"We just don't see a sharp turnaround in consumer sentiment and spending until employment and income look a lot better," said Rosalind Wells, chief economist at the National Retail Federation. "Shoppers are going to remain very frugal."

Last year, the industry ended up having the weakest holiday season -- when compared with the previous year -- since at least 1967, when the U.S. Commerce Department started collecting retail sales data.

So far, holiday 2009 forecasts range from as weak as a 3.5 percent decline to the same as last year.