NFIB Small Business Optimism Inched Down to 99.3 in January

Washington, DC, February 10, 2026-The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.2 points in January to 99.3 and remained above its 52-year average of 98. Of the ten Optimism Index components, three increased and seven decreased. Expected real sales volume was the only component with substantial change, increasing by six points. The Uncertainty Index rose seven points from December to 91. A rise in owners reporting uncertainty about whether it is a good time to expand their business was the primary driver of the rise in the Uncertainty Index.

“While GDP is rising, small businesses are still waiting for noticeable economic growth, Despite this, more owners are reporting better business health and anticipating higher sales,” says NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg

One major highlight of this report is the new NFIB Small Business Employment Index, which translates multiple jobs-related questions into one single number. Currently, this index tells a story of a balanced labor market, coming in about 1.5 points above its historical average (101.6 current vs 100 average).

Key findings include:

• In January, 13% reported the cost or availability of insurance as their single most important problem, up four points from December. The last time insurance reached this percentage was December 2018.
• Sixty percent of small business owners reported capital outlays in the last six months, up four points from December and the highest level since November 2023.
• In January, a net negative 6% of owners reported paying a higher interest rate on their most recent loan, down three points from December. This suggests that credit markets are turning more favorable for small borrowers.
• In January, 16% of small business owners cited labor quality as their single most important problem, down three points from December. This is the third consecutive month that labor quality reported as the single most important problem, has declined.
• The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes over the next quarter rose six points from December to a net 16% (seasonally adjusted).
• The net percent of owners reporting inventory gains rose four points to a net 3% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading since January 2023. Not seasonally adjusted, 14% reported increases in stocks (up one point), and 17% reported reductions (up two points).
• In January, 62% of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree, down 2 points from December. Four percent reported a significant impact (up one point), 17% reported a moderate impact (down four points), 41% reported a mild impact (up one point), and 37% reported no impact (up two points).
• The net percent of owners raising average selling prices fell four points from December to a net 26% (seasonally adjusted). Price increases remain well above the historical average of a net 13%, suggesting continued inflationary pressure. Looking forward to the next three months, a net 32% (seasonally adjusted) plan to increase prices, up four points from December.
• In January, overall reported business health improved from December, with more reporting it as excellent and fewer reporting it as fair. When asked to evaluate the overall health of their business, 14% rated it as excellent (up five points), 54% rated it as good (unchanged), 27% rated it as fair (down 7 points), and 4% rated it as poor (up one point).