Nearly 5 Million Existing Home Sales Expected in 2023, Says NAR
Washington, DC, December 20, 2022-An estimated 4.78 million existing homes will be sold, prices will remain stable, and Atlanta will be the top real estate market to watch in 2023 and beyond, forecasts Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist and senior vice president of research.
Yun predicts home sales will decline by 6.8% compared to 2022 (5.13 million) and the median home price will reach $385,800-an increase of just 0.3% from this year ($384,500).
"Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines," Yun said. "However, markets in California may be the exception, with San Francisco, for example, likely to register price drops of 10–15%."
Yun expects rent prices to rise 5% in 2023, following a 7% increase in 2022. He predicts foreclosure rates will remain at historically low levels in 2023, comprising less than 1% of all mortgages.
Yun forecasts U.S. GDP will grow by 1.3%, roughly half the typical historical pace of 2.5%. After eclipsing 7% in late 2022, he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to settle at 5.7% as the Fed slows the pace of rate hikes to control inflation. Yun noted this is lower than the pre-pandemic historical rate of 8%.
NAR identified ten real estate markets that it expects to outperform other metro areas in 2023. In order, the markets are as follows:
* Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Georgia
* Raleigh, North Carolina
* Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
* Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Arkansas-Missouri
* Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin, South Carolina
* Charleston-North Charleston, South Carolina
* Huntsville, Alabama
* Jacksonville, Florida
* San Antonio-New Braunfels, Texas
* Knoxville, Tennessee
"The demand for housing continues to outpace supply," Yun said. "The economic conditions in place in the top 10 U.S. markets, all of which are located in the South, provide the support for home prices to climb by at least 5% in 2023."