NAHB Economist Dials Back Housing Forecasts

Washington, DC, Oct. 5, 2010--The National Association of Home Builders' chief economist has reduced his housingstarts forecasts for the remainder of this year and next year.

David Crowe now expects annual rates of 630,000 in the final quarter of this year, 970,000 in the same quarter in 2011, and 1.36 million in the last three months of 2012.

Crowe also said that the size of the housing industry's recovery next year will vary substantially by state.

The forecasts are 16.4% below the 754,000 starts rate for the final quarter of 2010 that he forecast in January during the International Builders' Show. He also cut 20.5% from his earlier prediction of a 1.22 million starts rate in the final quarter of 2011.

Crowe expects single-family starts will grow from roughly an annual rate of 515,000 in the final quarter of this year (down from January's forecast of 650,000) to an 810,000 rate in the last three months of 2011 (previous number: 886,000).

Meanwhile, multifamily starts are now forecast to hit an annual rate of just 115,000 this quarter; in January it was 104,000. And for the October-December 2011 quarter, he now calls for a multifamily starts rate of 160,000 (down from 185,000).