NABE Economists Predict Significant Contraction

Washington, DC, Feb. 23, 2009--The U.S. unemployment rate -- now at 7.6 percent -- is expected hit a peak of 9 percent this year, according to the National Association for Business Economics.

The group projects that the economy will get worse this year.

"The steady drumbeat of weak economic and financial market data have made business economists decidedly more pessimistic on the economic outlook for the next several quarters," said NABE president Chris Varvares, head of Macroeconomic Advisers.

All told, Varvares and his fellow forecasters now expect the economy to shrink by 1.9 percent this year, a much deeper contraction than the 0.2 percent dip projected in the fall.

If the new forecast is correct, it would mark the first time since 1991 the economy actually contracted over a full year and would be the worst showing since 1982, when the country had suffered through a severe recession.

NABE forecasters now expect the economy to slide backward at a staggering pace of 5 percent in the current January-March quarter. That's a sharp downgrade from the 1.3 percent annualized drop projected in the old survey.

"Further pronounced weakness in housing and deteriorating labor markets underscore the risks for 2009," Varvares said.

Many economists believe that the current quarter will be the worst of the recession in terms of the bite to gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced within the U.S. and is the broadest barometer of the country's economic health.

The second quarter of this year also will be a lot weaker, with the forecasters now calling for the economy to contract at a 1.7 percent pace, compared with the prior projection of 0.5 percent growth.

In the second half of this year, the economy should expand. NABE forecasters believe home sales and housing construction should hit bottom by the middle of the year, which would help stabilize the economy. Home prices, however, are expected to keep falling, according to other experts.

NABE forecasters predicted that when all is said and done the recession will have caused GDP to decline 2.8 percent. That would be "slightly less than the 3.1 percent during the early '70s," according to the survey of 47 forecasters taken between Jan. 29 and Feb. 12.

Even in the best-case scenario, with the recession ending sometime in the second half of this year, employment conditions will be tough.