More Economists Believe Economy's Shrinking

Washington, DC, April 21, 2008-- Thirty percent of economists believe the economy will contract in the first half of the year.

That's up from 10 percent in January, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

"That's a striking difference," said Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, representing the NABE's survey.

Forecasters "were notably downbeat about their own companies and the overall economy," Simonson said.

Fifty one percent of forecasters thought economic growth during the first half of this year would be 1 percent or less. Sixteen percent estimated growth at between 1 and 2 percent, and just 3 percent put it at between 2 and 3 percent. Nobody believed growth would exceed 3 percent.

The economy grew at a pace of just 0.6 percent at the end of 2007.

Seventy percent of the economists said they are more pessimistic about the economy than they were three months ago.

Forty-five percent said they expect a substantial slowdown in housing in the next six months. The housing slump has depressed home prices and led to a record number of foreclosures.

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