Columbus, OH, March 3, 2006--According to Retail Forward's Future Spending Index, consumer spending should rise in March from last month. The overall index improved to 101.6, the highest level since September. Spending should be a bit weaker than a year ago, though, because the latest index is a shade lower than in March 2005.
"Underpinning the projected increase in sales this month are the lagging effects of the housing market boom and signs that debt loads have become less of a drag on ability to spend," said Steve Spiwak, an economist with Retail Forward. "The uneven job market recovery from last year's post-hurricane disruption will continue to discourage spending among some shoppers as spring approaches, however."
Other ShopperScape results show that bargain hunting is indeed the national pastime and Wal-Mart is the key player. The vast majority of primary household shoppers in the United States have visited a Wal-Mart store at least once to peruse its broad offer of low-price goods and services.
The Future Spending Index for March increased for Up-and Down-Market households but moderated for Middle-Market shoppers.
The index for Up-Market households (incomes greater than $75,000) rose to 101.6 for March compared with 98.5 in the prior month. An increase in home buying and a more optimistic view of job security lifted the index for this segment. Lagging investment gains compared with last year restrained the expected improvement in March spending somewhat.
Down-Market households (incomes less than $22,500) are showing some resilience this month. The index for this cohort jumped to 110.0 from 99.8 in February and 104.8 in the same month last year. A rebound in optimism about job and income prospects, lesser debt burdens and a bounce back in home buying were the key drivers of that performance.
Dampened by lingering job worries in the wake of the hurricanes, the index for Middle-Market households (incomes between $22,500 and $75,000) slipped to 98.8 for March, down from 100.6 in February. That decline was softened by a pickup in recent home purchases and debt loads that have become more manageable.
Nearly everyone has been inside a Wal-Mart store. And while it should come as no surprise that less-affluent households are more likely to shop at Wal-Mart weekly, ShopperScape results also show that similar proportions of shoppers across the key income segments have visited a Wal-Mart store on a monthly or less-frequent basis,
More than nine out of ten primary household shoppers have made a shopping trip to a Wal-Mart store (excluding Sam's Club) at some point in the past. Down- and Middle- Market shoppers are most likely to have shopped at Wal-Mart. Only 7% of Middle- Market shoppers and 9% of Down-Market Shoppers have never shopped the retailer.
A startling 39% of all shoppers have visited a Wal-Mart within the past week. Down- and Middle-Market shoppers are the most likely to have visited a Wal-Mart recently.
Twenty-six percent of Down-Market shoppers shopped a Wal-Mart store between one and four weeks ago, nearly the same proportion as Up-Market households (27%). Thirty percent of Middle-Market shoppers visited during the same time frame.
Wal-Mart's share of common, frequently purchased consumable goods is greatest for personal hygiene products and weakest for fresh foods, whereas the retailer's penetration of dry grocery and snack items falls between those two poles.
Among the 69% of shoppers who purchased skin care, hair care and other personal care products in the past 4 weeks, more than half (54%) purchased the category at a Wal-Mart store in the past 4 weeks. This was the only frequently purchased category for which more than half of all purchasers bought the item at Wal-Mart.
