Milwaukee, WI, March 13, 2007--Companies' hiring plans for the second quarter will continue their slow decline, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey.
Eighteen percent of firms surveyed said they'll be hiring in the upcoming second quarter, compared with 19% who said they intended to hire in the first quarter, according to the Manpower report. Manpower surveys about 14,000 U.S. companies on their hiring plans each quarter.
Manpower's seasonally adjusted net-employment numbers measure the percentage of firms planning to hire minus those intending layoffs. Manpower doesn't measure the number of jobs.
For about three years, the portion of firms who said they planned to hire has hovered around 20%, but the four most recent Manpower surveys reveal a slow shift downward: 18% for the upcoming second quarter, down from 19% for the first quarter, down from 20% for the fourth quarter, down from 21% for the third quarter.
U.S. employers "are planning to tone down their hiring activity during the second quarter," said Jonas Prising, president of Manpower North America. "If you look at the last three quarters, employers are shifting into neutral from a forward gear."
The jobs numbers matched about what economists expected. "This is not a bad month compared to the expectations," Prising said. But "compared to last year, the same month had twice as many jobs created."
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% from 4.6% -- but not because unemployed workers got jobs. Instead, the figure declined because people dropped out of the labor force.
"You have the same tale of two economies," Prising said. "Anybody who is producing things -- the manufacturing sector, durable and nondurable goods and construction -- is having a tough time, whereas the service sector is improving," he said.
The job market "seems to be consistent with a moderate growth environment. There are still plenty of opportunities," Prising said. "It's just slightly more difficult today than it was three or four months ago."
These are the net-employment outlooks on a seasonally adjusted basis for each of the 10 industries tracked by Manpower. For instance, in the mining industry, 26% of firms say they intend to hire in the second quarter.
Mining, 26%, down from 29% who planned to hire in the first quarter
Wholesale and retail trade, 20%, down from 22%
Services, 19%, down from 23%
Transportation and public utilities, 19%, up from 17%
Nondurables manufacturers, 18%, flat from 18%
Durable-goods manufacturers, 17%, down from 18%
Finance, insurance and real estate, 17%, up from 15%
Construction, 16%, down from 18%
Public administration, 16%, down from 18%
Education, 15%, down from 17%
When it comes hiring expectations by region, "the West has cooled down significantly," Prising said. "The West is continuing to trend slightly down from a high level, the Northeast and South are stable and the Midwest is slightly weaker, but is also the weakest region in terms of the overall outlook for employers."
These are the net-employment outlooks on a seasonally adjusted basis for each of the four regions tracked by Manpower, for the second quarter:
South, 21%, down from 22%
Northeast, 19%, flat from 19%
West, 19%, down from 21%
Midwest, 15%, down from 17%
Manpower defines the Midwest region as Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.
The Northeast region is Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.
The South region is Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.
The West region is Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
