Leading Indicators Up 0.3%
The increase was the third in the last six months. The increases and decreases have been alternating and offsetting each other. As a result, the leading index is now at the same level as in March.
In September, building permits made the largest negative contribution, which was offset by positive contributions from vendor performance, stock prices, and unemployment insurance claims. From March to September, gains in real money supply and stock prices have offset the weakness from the housing permits and interest rate spread components.
Seven of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in September. The positive contributors were vendor performance, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, stock prices, manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods, real money supply, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials* and index of consumer expectations.
The negative contributors were building permits and interest rate spread. Average weekly manufacturing hours held steady in September.