New York, NY, December 20--The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index increased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November.
Six of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in November. The positive contributors - beginning with the largest positive contributor – were stock prices, real money supply, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), index of consumer expectations, manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods, and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials.
The negative contributors - beginning with the largest negative contributor – were vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, building permits, and interest rate spread.
The leading index now stands at 115.2 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.4 percent in October and decreased 0.2 percent in September. During the six-month span through November, the leading index decreased 1.1 percent, with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals fifty percent).
All four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in November. The positive contributors to the index - beginning with the largest positive contributor - were employees on nonagricultural payrolls, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, and manufacturing and trade sales.
The coincident index now stands at 118.5 (1996=100). This index increased 0.4 percent in October and remained unchanged in September. During the six-month period through November, the coincident index increased 0.9 percent.
The lagging index stands at 98.3 (1996=100) in November, with four of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were average prime rate charged by banks, change in CPI for services, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income.
The negative contributors were commercial and industrial loans outstanding, average duration of unemployment (inverted), and change in labor cost per unit of output. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in October and increased 0.1 percent in September.
