Leading Indicators Up 0.1% in January

Washington, DC, February 21, 2007--A gauge of future economic activity points to continued modest growth in the U.S. economy. The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in January after rising 0.6% in December and falling 0.1% in November, the Conference Board reported Wednesday.

Economists expected the index to rise 0.3%.

"Despite the hike in energy prices and the slump in housing, the economy remains resilient--especially consumer demand," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research organization, in a press release. The latest data point to continued growth in the second quarter, "or even a little more growth."

"Slow to moderate economic growth is likely to continue in the near term," the organization said.

Four of the 10 leading indicators expanded in January, led by money supply and consumer expectations. Jobless claims and stock prices also pointed to growth. Six of the indicators fell: the factory workweek, building permits, capital-goods orders, the interest-rate spread, vendor performance and consumer-goods orders.

In the past six months, the index is up 0.7%, with five of the 10 indicators expanding over that time.

In January, the coincident index increased 0.1%, with three of the four indicators increasing. The lagging index fell 0.1%.

Three of the leading indicators must be estimated because the data have not yet been released. Capital equipment orders were assumed to fall 3.5%, consumer-goods orders were assumed to fall 0.1% and real money supply was assumed to rise about 7% annualized.