Leading Indicators Rise For Third Straight Month

New York, NY, July 20, 2009--The index of U.S. leading indicators rose in June for a third consecutive month, perhaps indicating that the economy may be emerging from the worst recession in five decades.

The Conference Board’s gauge of the economic outlook for the next three to six months increased 0.7 percent, more than forecast, after a revised 1.3 percent gain in May, the New York- based research group said today. It is the first time the index has climbed for three months in a row since 2004.

Smaller job losses, rising stock prices and stabilization in homebuilding and manufacturing are evidence that government efforts to stem the financial crisis and lower borrowing costs may pay off. A jobless rate that is forecast to reach 10 percent and falling home values are a reminder that any expansion will be muted as consumers rein in spending and boost savings.

The New York-based Conference Board’s index was forecast to rise 0.5 percent, according to the median of 59 economists.

Seven of the 10 indicators in today’s report added to the index while three indicators subtracted from it. A growing divergence between long- and short-term interest rates, rising stock prices, a longer factory workweek, increases in building permits and falling jobless claims contributed to the gain. Falling money supply, orders for capital goods and consumer expectations pulled down the index.