Leading Indicators Fall Again: Slow Economy Ahead

Washington, DC, Sept, 18, 2008--The index of leading economic indicators fell 0.5 percent in August after sinking 0.7 percent in July, the Conference Board said Thursday.

"The indicators show little reason to expect better economic conditions over the next few months," said Ken Goldstein, economist for the private research group. "We may not see any signs of improvement until well into the second half of 2009. Until then, a very slow economy is the most positive expectation."

Six of the 10 leading indicators fell in August: vendor performance, building permits, jobless claims, the factory workweek, capital goods orders and the money supply. Four indicators rose: the interest rate spread, consumer expectations, stock prices and consumer goods orders.

The leading index is down 2.7 percent from a year ago. The index is designed for forecast turning points in the economy six to nine months ahead.