New York, NY, April 21--The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.4 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in March.
Two of the ten indicators that make up the leading index increased in March. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread and manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), building permits, vendor performance, average weekly manufacturing hours, real money supply*, index of consumer expectations, stock prices, and manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods*.
The leading index now stands at 115.1 (1996=100). This index increased 0.1 percent in February and decreased 0.3 percent in January. During the six-month span through March, the leading index decreased 0.3 percent, with five out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals fifty-five percent).
Coincident Indicators. All four indicators that make up the coincident index increased in March. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were personal income less transfer payments*, employees on nonagricultural payrolls, industrial production, and manufacturing and trade sales*.
The coincident index now stands at 119.5 (1996=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in February and decreased 0.5 percent in January. During the six-month period through March, the coincident index increased 1.5 percent.
Lagging Indicators. The lagging index stands at 99.4 (1996=100) in March, with four of the seven components advancing. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were change in CPI for services, average prime rate charged by banks, ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*, and ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, average duration of unemployment (inverted), and change in labor cost per unit of output*. Based on revised data, the lagging index increased 0.3 percent in February and increased 1.0 percent in January.
