New York, NY, March 20, 2006--The Conference Board announced today that the U.S. leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent and the lagging index increased 0.1 percent in February.
The leading index decreased in February following four consecutive increases. The leading index increased 1.5 percent from August 2005 to February 2006 (a 2.9 percent annual rate). The largest negative contributors to the February decrease were vendor performance index and index of consumer expectations, and the strengths and weakness among the leading indicators were balanced in February.
The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, increased in February, and it has increased in five of the last six months. In addition, strength among its components has been widespread in recent months.
The leading index has been fluctuating around a more moderate upward trend since mid-2004. At the same time, real GDP growth slowed to a 1.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005. The current behavior of the leading index still suggests that the sluggish growth in the fourth quarter should not persist, and economic growth is likely to pick up in the near term.
