ICSC Economist Sees Retail Rebound in Second Half

New York, NY, Jan. 19, 2009--International Council of Shopping Centers' chief economist is predicting that U.S. retail sales should rebound in the second half of the year as an expected government stimulus package lets consumers return to discretionary purchases.

Michael Niemira said in a conference call last week that he expected total U.S. retail sales, including food services, would fall 5 percent in the first half of the year but then rise 2.7 percent in the second half.

Excluding food services sales, retail sales will fall 6.1 percent in the first half and advance 2.7 percent in the second half, he said.

"There's a hell of a lot of pessimism out there that things will never turn around and that's actually the wrong way to look at," Niemira said. "Frankly, at these times, you have to think about what are the catalysts for growth and how do you play it from a retailer's standpoint?"

"If you continue to focus backward in a recession, then you're not positioning your business correctly."