Housing Market in Recovery Mode, Says ITR's Lokar

Dallas, TX, January 18, 2024-The housing market hit a recession in mid-2022 and has already started to recover, said Connor Lokar of ITR Economics, during his talk to CCA Global members at the group’s ConnecXtion conference in Dallas, Texas. 

Home starts are up 19.8% annually, though the current level of existing-home sales (4.1 million units) is the lowest since the Great Recession.

Residential remodel will start to recover in the second half of 2024, with the lag in recovery not caused by a lack of willing buyers but a lack of able buyers. While Lokar expects the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates as soon as May, he doesn’t anticipate mortgage rates will go below 6%.

Lokar believes that the economy will reach new heights in 2024 and noted that results of the presidential election will have no bearing on this. While the rate of inflation will improve, it will continue at a slower pace. Inflation will dip to 2.5% this year but jump back to over 3% soon after the Fed drops rates. 

Lokar told audience members that now is the time to prepare their businesses for the eminent surge later this year.

As for the current GDP ranking, Lokar noted that China will soon be struggling due to a lack of population growth, possibly enabling India to take second place within a few years. The U.S. will remain in the first position, he said.