Homeownership in Q1 Posted Modest Decline, Though Up YOY

Charlotte, NC, April 30, 2026-On April 28, the Census Bureau released its Q1 homeownership rate data, which indicated a modest sequential decline and modest year-over-year (YOY) improvement. Homeownership rate trends can meaningfully swing housing demand in the US, especially on substantial deviations above/below the long-term average. Current homeownership rates are modestly below the average going back to 1980, with affordability challenges resulting in weakening homeownership trends since the tail end of the pandemic.

Homeownership Rate Falls Sequentially in Q1 2026. According to the US Census Bureau, the homeownership rate in the U.S, was 65.4% in Q1 2026 on a seasonally adjusted basis. This was a modest decline from the 65.5% in the prior quarter, but up from 65.2% in Q1 2025. Note that the Census Bureau did caveat the Q4 2025 data by indicating that only November and December data was available given the government shutdown, which impacted data collection in October. On a YOY basis, there were some differences in performance by age group. This includes YOY improvement in the under-35 contingent, which many in the homebuilding industry are quick to point out are the most impacted by recent affordability challenges. Understandably, this group has also lost the most ground since 2021, as shown by the table as the bottom of this note.

Framing Homeownership Rate Historically. While these changes do seem small, deviations away from the ~65-66% historical average homeownership rate can significantly impact new home demand. We calculate about 88 million owner-occupied homes in the U.S., thus a ten basis point change in the homeownership rate, all else held equal, would theoretically translate to a 88K unit increase in home buying demand. The total market is significantly larger than just the market of built-for-sale. For example, a portion of this incremental demand can come from rental to owner-occupied conversions. However, we have found that longer-term fluctuations in new home sales results inevitably do correspond with movements in the homeownership rate. The clearest example of this is record new home sales leading up to the Financial Crisis followed by significantly depressed new home sales (at or below 500K annual units) between 2008 and 2015 as the homeownership rate troughed.