Home Prices Rose 1.3% in September, Says Case-Shiller
New York, NY, November 25, 2025-The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.3% annual gain for September, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month.
“The housing market's deceleration accelerated in September, with the National Composite posting just a 1.3% annual gain-the weakest performance since mid-2023,” said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, head of fixed income tradables & commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “This marks a continued slide from August’s 1.4% increase and represents a stark contrast to the double-digit gains that characterized the early post-pandemic era. National home prices continued trailing inflation, with September’s CPI running 1.7 percentage points ahead of housing appreciation. This marks the widest gap between inflation and home-price growth since the two measures diverged in June, with the spread continuing to widen each month.
“Regional performance reveals a tale of two markets. Chicago continues to lead with a 5.5% annual gain, followed by New York at 5.2% and Boston at 4.1%. These Northeastern and Midwestern metros have sustained momentum even as broader market conditions soften. At the opposite extreme, Tampa posted a 4.1% annual decline-the sharpest drop among tracked metros and its 11th consecutive month of negative annual returns. Phoenix (-2.0%), Dallas (-1.3%), and Miami (-1.3%) likewise remained in negative territory, highlighting particular weakness in Sun Belt markets that experienced the most dramatic pandemic-era price surges.
“The geographic rotation is striking. Markets that were pandemic darlings-particularly in Florida, Arizona, and Texas-are now experiencing outright price declines. Meanwhile, traditionally stable metros in the Northeast and Midwest continue to post solid gains, suggesting a reversion to pre-pandemic patterns where job markets and urban fundamentals drive appreciation rather than migration trends and remote-work dynamics.
“September’s monthly performance was uniformly weak. All 20 tracked metros posted month-over-month declines before seasonal adjustment, with Tampa (-1.0%), San Diego (-0.9%), and Seattle (-0.9%) leading the downturn. Even after seasonal adjustment, the National Index managed only a 0.2% gain. This broad-based monthly weakness suggests that elevated mortgage rates-which remained near 6.3% in late September-are finally overwhelming the market’s supply constraints.
“A deeper look at momentum shows clear weakening. Over the past six months, national home prices have risen just 0.4%, a gain that is only marginal in nominal terms and negative in real inflation-adjusted terms. The deceleration from early-2025 strength has been broad-based, with only seven of the 20 metros-Chicago, Cleveland, Minneapolis, Boston, New York, Charlotte, and Atlanta-posting positive price appreciation over the trailing six-month period. Most Sun Belt and Western markets experienced outright declines, underscoring how affordability pressures and higher mortgage rates have eroded momentum across much of the country.
“For context, this represents the weakest annual price growth since early 2023, when the market was absorbing the initial shock of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle,” Godec concluded. “Yet unlike that period, which saw a quick rebound, current conditions suggest more persistent headwinds. With mortgage rates stubbornly elevated and affordability at multi-decade lows, the market appears to be settling into a new equilibrium of minimal price growth-or, in some regions, outright decline.”
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.3% annual gain for September, down from a 1.4% rise in the previous month. The Ten-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.0%, down from a 2.1% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 1.4%, down from a 1.6% increase in the previous month.