Global Recovery Remains Slow, But Recession Likely to Be Avoided
Washington, DC, October 10, 2023-The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8%, reports the International Monetary Fund.
Advanced economies are expected to slow from 2.6% in 2022 to 1.5% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in both 2023 and 2024. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.