Fed Researchers Say Double Dip Likely in Two Years

San Francisco, CA, Aug. 10, 2010--Researchers at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said it's likely the U.S. economy will fall back into recession in the next two years.

The regional Fed office said the probability of another recession over the next 18 to 24 months is higher than that of growth.

The researchers used leading economic indicators to try to predict the possibility of a renewed economic downturn.

They said the experiment yielded vastly different results, depending on which indicators were used. But overall, they said, the numbers "indicate that the macroeconomic outlook is likely to deteriorate progressively starting sometime next summer."

"Of course, economic policy can strongly influence the outcome," the researchers said.