Economists Say Housing on Way to Recovery

Washington, DC, May 20, 2010--Economists participating in NAHB Construction Forecast Conference Webinar agreed that the housing market is on the road to recovery, but cautioned that several factors could contribute to a bumpy ride in the coming months.

“Home buyer tax credits clearly did their job and got people back into the marketplace,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, who also served as moderator of the two-hour webinar.

With the expiration of the tax credits in April, Crowe said the housing momentum is being carried forward by low interest rates, pent up household formations, stabilizing prices and budding employment growth.

However, many factors continue to drag on housing, including the critical shortage of credit for new and existing projects, competition from short sales and foreclosures and regional economic disparities.

The availability of acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) financing remains a major concern as the industry moves forward, Crowe said. “Builders still tell us that credit is extremely tight. Banks are saying not so much. That gap is an indication that something is broken, at least when it comes to residential construction.”

NAHB is forecasting 552,000 single-family starts in 2010, up 25 percent from last year’s 445,000 level, which was the lowest annual output since 1959 when the government began collecting this data.

Crowe said that multifamily housing starts are expected to lose further ground this year, falling 18 percent to 93,000 units, before rebounding to 150,000 units in 2011.

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said that housing will improve as the job market does. He forecast that the economy will average monthly job gains of 125,000 this year, 250,000 in 2011 and 300,000 in 2012.

The key factor driving housing demand is jobs, said Zandi.