Economic Reports Still Trending Positive

Washington, DC, March 2, 2010--Last week's economic reports were mixed, with five of nine indicators decreasing, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.

While some of the negative reports, such as consumer confidence and weekly jobless claims, were likely affected by inclement weather, weak data on the housing market as well as sluggish manufacturing orders are early indications that the economy is slowing from the pace of late last year, said Dave Huether, chief economist for NAM.

Nevertheless, Huether said, the trends remain positive.

The share of negative reports peaked at 83 percent at the end of last March, the final month of the first quarter of 2009 when GDP fell at an annual rate of 6.4 percent.

After that time, the share of negative indicators fell dramatically to less than one-quarter at the end of last June and then to a low of just 10 percent in late September.

The share of negative economic indicators then rose to 36 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and then to 40 percent in the first quarter of this year.

Because many of the indicators are forward-looking, Huether said, the gradual rise in the negative share over the past six months signals that the economy will likely decelerate in the first half of this year.