New York, NY, Apr. 19--The Conference Board, a private research group, reported Monday that its Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.3 percent in March, following no change in February and a 0.4 percent rise in January.
The index is seen as a gauge of economic activity over the next six months or so, and is made up of ten indicators of future economic activity. Six of those indicators rose last month, including real money supply, building permits and new orders for consumer goods to manufacturers.
The report was in line with what analysts were expecting, and the financial markets showed little reaction.
The Conference Board also reported that its indicator of current economic activity rose for the seventh straight month in March, indicating that economic momentum was remaining strong going into the second quarter.
"The economy looks like it's picking up steam," said Standard & Poor's economist David Wyss. "And if this is a standard U-shaped recovery"--with a long bottoming-out period--"we should be getting to the steep part of the upward curve."
The upturn in the leading index in March left the indicator 4.4 percent higher than its most recent low in March of 2003, though the group noted that growth in the indicator had "slowed somewhat in recent months."
The Conference Board noted that its indicator of current economic conditions, its Coincident Index, rose 0.2 percent in March, continuing its steady advance, and that the strength in current conditions had been solidifying in recent months and was taking a wider hold in various parts of the economy.
Three of the four elements of the Coincident Index were higher in March, including personal income, non-agricultural employment and manufacturing. The only lagging element was industrial production.
Josh Feinman, chief economist Deutsche Asset Management, said the latest leading indicators report was "consistent with continued economic expansion.
"There's nothing in there that would alter the overall thrust of the data, which is that the economy is continuing to expand and will move ahead at a pretty good clip, at least in the near term," Feinman said.
Combined with other recent economic measurements, the report pointed to more steady growth in the economy. The Conference Board said in its report that the current rate of growth in its leading index suggested "a continuation of relatively strong economic growth in the near term."
Other positive readings on the economy were released last week, including strong measures of housing construction and retail spending for March. Employment, which had lagged behind other areas of the economy, also seemed to turn around.
