Economic Indicators Growing More Positive

Washington, DC, June 8, 2009--Of the 11 major economic indicators that came out last week, only one (May chain store sales compared to a year earlier) deteriorated, according to the National Association of Manufacturers.

It's likely that the worst of the recession has passed,  said the association's chief economist Dave Huether.

However, a sudden rebound to positive economic growth is not likely in the cards, Huether said. While the housing downturn appears to be nearing an end, consumers remain very cautious in their spending, and businesses' appetite for new investment spending remains weak.

He said that onditions in both the manufacturing sector and the wider nonmanufacturing business sector, while not expanding, have been on an upward trend since bottoming out in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The most important indicator that came out last week was Friday's employment report, which was generally more positive that the consensus expectation.

The economy shed 345,000 jobs last month, well short of the anticipated half million-plus monthly decline.  Employment declines have moderated rather significantly over the past several months. Still, employment has now declined for 17 consecutive months, tying the post World War II record set in 1981-82.  Of the six million jobs lost since December 2007, 30 percent have been in the manufacturing sector, which shed another 156,000 in May.

The number of workers in manufacturing fell below the 12 million mark (11,986,000) for the first time since February 1946.