Economic Forecast Sees No Recession This Year

Los Angeles, CA, March 11, 2008-- The U.S. economy will suffer as the slumping housing market slows job creation and consumer spending, but the nation should avoid a recession this year, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

However, the study concluded that a recession could happen if the credit crisis continues to grow and prevents consumers from buying cars and other big ticket items, and stops businesses from spending on equipment.

"We don't see that happening," said Edward Leamer, director and co-author. "This is a tough call, but I will be very surprised if this thing actually precipitates into recession."

The forecast anticipates sluggish job growth, with the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 5.5 percent by the end of the year. The February rate was 4.8 percent.

The forecast expects GDP growth of about 1.5 percent this year, rising to about 3 percent growth in 2009. GDP grew 2.2 percent in 2007, the weakest in five years.

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