Washington, Jan. 28--In a report that could moderate the outlook for a manufacturing rebound, the U.S. Commerce Department said new orders for durable goods were flat during December from the month before, after falling 2.3% during November.
Reported declines in communication-equipment orders were especially pronounced for the second straight month.
The report contradicted a raft of other recent data showing a manufacturing and technology rebound, not to mention relatively optimistic assessments from tech executives during recent earnings announcements. As a result, economists were reluctant to read too much into the latest swing in the U.S. government's report.
"You'd have to be insane to change your mind about the big picture, in either direction, based on two months of durable-goods orders figures," said Ian Shepherdson, a bullish economist with High Frequency Economics, an economic research company in Valhalla, N.Y. Mr. Shepherdson said if the trend in durable-goods orders persists for six months, then "I'd be very concerned."
The two most-recent months of durable-goods figures marked a pause in what was an otherwise impressive run in order growth during 2003. Between April of last year and October, monthly orders rose 10%, to $185 billion from $168 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. But by December, they had slipped back to $181 billion.
The reported turnaround in tech equipment—most notably communications—was especially sharp. The Commerce Department said orders for communications equipment fell 18% during December from November, after declining 46% the month before.
Overall computer and electronic-equipment orders slipped 2.7% after rising 21% between April and October.
