Conference Board Says No Recession Likely

Washington, DC, May 19, 2008--The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1 percent in April, the Conference Board said Monday. It was second consecutive gain.

Economist for the group said the economy is also likely to remain weak, but is not in a recession.
The index attempts to forecast turning points in the economy.

"These data certainly reflect a weak economy, but not one in recession," said Ken Goldstein, labor economist at the private research group. The small increases in March and April "could be a signal that the economy may not weaken further."

The index is down at a 2.3 percent annual pace in the past six months. Four of the 10 leading indicators are stronger over that period.

The coincident index, which measures the current economy, was flat in April and is down at a 0.7 percent annual rate in the past six months.

In April, six of the 10 leading indicators increased, including stock prices, interest-rate spread, building permits, jobless claims, vendor performance and consumer-goods orders. Consumer expectations, factory work hours and orders for capital goods fell.