Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies To Double

New York, NY, Nov. 20, 2008--Commercial mortgage delinquencies will double next year amid a recession and rising unemployment, Fitch Ratings said on Thursday.
 
Fitch's loan delinquency index, which measures commercial mortgages that are at least 60 days delinquent within a universe of 475 transactions totaling $553.1 billion, will likely end 2008 at 75 basis points, up from 51 basis points recently, Mary MacNeill, managing director, U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities, said during a conference call.

The index will likely rise to 1.5% or 2% by the end of 2009, she predicted.
 
"Given our bleak economic outlook, all property types should contribute to an increase in delinquencies," she said. Part of that outlook includes a Fitch assumption that U.S. unemployment reaches 8.3% by 2010.
 
In a worst-case scenario, the delinquency index could jump to 4.2% by the end of next year.