Chicago Fed National Activity Index Inches Up

Washington, DC, April 23, 2007--The Chicago Fed said its National Activity Index rose to 0.01 in March from a downwardly revised -0.11 in February. It was previously reported at +0.03.

The three-month moving average of the index was negative for a seventh straight month, falling to -0.30 from a downwardly revised -0.12. It was originally reported as -0.02 in February.

The Chicago Fed said the negative reading on the three-month average suggests growth was below trend and indicates little inflation pressures over the next year.

Employment indicators were helped by the strong 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls and drop in the jobless rate to 4.4 percent from 4.5 percent in March.

The three other broad categories of indicators (production, consumption and housing/sales) were all negative.

Production-related indicators were hurt by lower industrial production. Consumption and housing indicators were hurt by a small, 0.8-percent increase in March housing starts, which was below its historical norm.

Overall, 50 of the 85 individual indicators tracked by the Chicago Fed made positive contributions in March while 35 made negative contributions.