Chicago Fed Data Indicates Recession Has Started

Chicago, IL, March 24, 2008-- The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's National Activity Index for February plunged to a five-year low last month.

The February reading for the National Activity Index (NAI) dropped to -1.04 from -0.68 in January, with all four broad categories in the index in negative territory.

The Chicago Fed believes the three month moving average signals that a recession has begun.

The reading was at -0.87 for February. The critical level is -.70.

Downward revisions to previous data lowered the previous two months below the -0.70 threshold as well, to -0.73 in January and -0.78 in December.

Sixty-five of the 85 national indicators were negative in February, and just 20 made positive contributions.