Top 250 Design Survey 2024: Designers weigh in on the state of the industry – October 2024

By Darius Helm

The commercial market has been soft but overall healthy in 2024. Across the segments, activity has been steady with few drastic jumps or declines. In terms of flooring, designers commend the industry for its products and practices but continue wanting more-more transparency, more high-quality sustainable options, more choice in formats and colorations.

Data indicates that commercial sector design activity is down. The American Institute of Architect’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) marked its 2024 high in February with a score of 49.5 and its low point in May at 42.4. The ABI forecasts construction activity nine to 12 months out with scores over 50 indicating growth in commercial market activity. Following its pandemic lows, the ABI average score was 51.8 for 2022 and 48 last year. In 2024, that average, from January to August, slid slightly again to 46.3.

Dodge Data’s construction starts index for 2024 marked declines in non-residential starts in January (-2%), February (-16%), March (-9%), May (-2%) and June (-13%) and increases in April (+17%) and July (+25%). According to Dodge’s chief economist, Richard Branch, “Construction starts showed great promise in July. However, the short term remains questionable due to high interest rates.” He adds that Fed rate cuts “will, over time, make market conditions more conducive to moving projects forward. In the meantime, construction starts will likely remain volatile over the next few months.”

This year, 22.3% of designers surveyed by Floor Focus reported that budgets are up, 42.4% reported budgets are unchanged and the remaining 35.3% reported budgets are down, whereas last year, 30% reported they were up, and 35% said they were unchanged with the same percentage reported that budgets were down, indicating that conditions have continued to deteriorate.

LEADING SECTORS OF ACTIVITY
Floor Focus asked designers which commercial markets have been the fastest growing over the last 18 months. K-12, which had been in the top three fastest-growing markets for several years but dropped to seventh last year, took first this year with nearly three times the votes it garnered last year. And medical/acute care, which was first last year, took second.

Both tenant improvement and senior living chalked up significant growth, while higher education saw the greatest percentage of decline. Government and Science & Tech also declined in votes.

Floor Focus also asked designers about their top three projects over the course of the last year. Total corporate (workplace) lost a little ground this year but held on to the first position, where it has sat for the last four years. Both total healthcare and total education gained, with healthcare’s gains in senior living and education’s in K-12. Government, multifamily, retail and residential also saw growth, while hospitality (-3%) and institutional/public space (-5%) declined.

For the complete Design Survey results, see the October 2024 issue of Floor Focus Magazine. 

Copyright 2024 Floor Focus