Strategic Exchange: The forecasted uptick in residential flooring keeps getting pushed back - July 2025
By Kemp Harr
When you make your living selling a necessity like flooring and the replacement of that product can be deferred until the consumer feels good about the economy and their financial position, consumer confidence is a pivotal factor impacting demand.
In June, the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers, which tracks consumer sentiment, rose 16% versus May but remained 18% lower than in December 2024. Consumers don’t think we’re out of the woods, but they’re less worried about the worst-case scenario. Despite the negative GDP reading for Q1, the macro economy is performing decently.
President Trump’s shock-and-awe, “art of the deal” negotiation strategy prepares people for the worst so that they are happy when the end result is only half-bad. With the July 9th tariff deadline days away, as of when I’m writing this, one has to wonder why the stock market at the end of June is optimistically close to record highs.
Investors are most likely reacting to the imminent passage of the “big, beautiful bill” and have been desensitized to the threat of tariffs because the deadlines and percentages keep changing. Many are guessing that a 10% tariff for most countries (outside of Asia) is already dialed in.
The fact remains, however, that demand for replacement flooring continues to be soft, and the forecasted upturn date keeps getting pushed further down the road. Santo Torcivia just published the 2026 version of the U.S. FlooReport, and his latest forecast calls for flooring sales to be flat in 2025, with a slight uptick in the second half of 2026 and then two years of 3% growth in 2027 and beyond. Let’s not forget that a flat year in 2025 is an improvement versus the decline we’ve seen in the past two years.
Bifurcation at NeoCon/Design Days
The NeoCon/Design Days event, held annually in Chicago in early June, is focused on the commercial interiors business, and attendance was down slightly this year. The three-day event continues to be bifurcated due to a lack of vision both with Vornado, which owns The Mart, and the big Design Days anchor tenants like Steelcase and MillerKnoll.
Vornado is living under the illusion that the companies that left The Mart will eventually come back, while the companies that moved to Fulton Market, located a mile west of The Mart, haven’t found the right leadership to speak for their group. In the meantime, the A&D target audience is trying to decide if they even need to come to Chicago, since expos focused on the vertical sectors, like BDNY for hospitality and the Healthcare Design Conference, offer a more honed and efficient alternative.
This year’s drop in attendance was probably not severe enough to be a wake-up call-if, in fact, it is accurate. However, if cooler minds, in both camps, would agree to compromise and focus on constructive change, this is a short list of areas they might focus on:
1. One registration system
2. One directory
3. A simple transportation system that enables a 10-minute commute
4. One unbiased product award contest; Sandow’s HiP awards appear to reward their advertisers
5. A viewing place at Fulton Market to stream the NeoCon education content
Naturally, fees would have to be charged to enable this compromise, but in the end, the A&D audience would likely flock to attend because what drives them to Chicago every June is the search for exciting new designs that overcome obstacles they face.
The number of flooring brands that exhibit in The Mart continues to drop. And next year, Mannington Commercial will be out, as it’s decided not to renew its lease. This year, Fulton Market started offering pop-up, air-conditioned showrooms, an alternative to The Mart’s seventh floor temporary showroom offering. At this point, we’re hearing that showroom attendance by the target A&D audience inside The Mart is outpacing Fulton Market, but the numbers are shifting. It’s time for the leaders at Vornado to decide if they are in the real estate business or the expo business. Perhaps they can do both and start charging user fees for the brands outside of The Mart. Change is happening, and The Mart needs to step up and lead it.
Alliance Flooring meeting in Park City
The July issue is a little late to be covering a retail flooring buying group’s annual meeting, which are generally all clustered in the first three months of the year, but the concept for Alliance Flooring’s delay was driven by the desire to minimize drastic program changes during a down market and allow dealers to squeeze in some vacation time with their families during the meeting, thus the “family vacation” theme. Seventy-two of Alliance Flooring’s members have now added the Perfect Home merchandising system that the group launched last year. Tweaks are still being made to its hardwood flooring program.
The Carpets Plus ColorTile program was started 28 years ago by Ron Dunn and Jon Logue, who met and became friends while working for Mohawk. Jon died last year, and the founders’ sons, Kevin Logue and Ryan Dunn, are now co-CEOs of the group. An awards celebration was held on the last day of the meeting, and the winners are listed on FloorDaily.
For comments on this column, email kemp@floorfocus.com.