New York, NY, Dec. 18--Leading indicators rose in November, suggesting that the economy is poised for growth in the new year.
The Conference Board reported Thursday its index of leading indicators rose 0.3% to 114.2 in November. That followed a revised 0.5% gain in October. The index was equal to 100 in 1996.
The gain was on target with economists' forecasts and pointed to solid growth in the next six months. "While the initial strength came from highly accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, it has broadened out to include improving labor markets and factory activity," wrote Steven Wood, chief economist at Insight Economics, in a note to clients. "This increases the probability that the expansion will become self-sustaining."
The coincident-indicator index, which tracks current conditions, climbed 0.2%, while the composite index of lagging indicators dropped 0.3%.
The data point to post-holiday strength, said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein, in a press release. "The lone note of caution is that although the path is up, it has been bumpy and will remain so in the new year."
Six of the ten indicators making up the overall leading-indicators index rose. The biggest contributors to the month's gain were improving weekly jobless claims and consumer confidence. Manufacturing hours were also on the rise. The biggest negatives for the month were building permits and money supply.
The Conference Board is a nonprofit research and business-membership group that computes the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
