Import Volume Expected to Remain Down YOY Until Spring

Washington, DC, January 12, 2026 - Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is forecast to see its first month-over-month gain in six months during January but is expected to remain down year over year until spring, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. “Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what’s ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly to ensure consumers can find the products they want at prices they can afford. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”

Following “chronic uncertainty” from increased U.S. tariffs in 2025, the impact on cargo imports in 2026 is likely to still be affected by trade policy, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

“As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances,” Hackett said. “This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”