Retail Sales Projected to Grow 3.1% in 2016, National Retail Federation

Washington, DC, February 11, 2016—The National Retail Federation has released its 2016 economic forecast, projecting retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) will grow 3.1%, higher than the ten-year average of 2.7%. NRF also announced that it expects non-store sales in 2016 to grow between 6% and 9%.

The report also included the following insights:

* Economic growth should be more of the same and uneven. It is likely to be in the range of 1.9% to 2.4% in 2016.

* Employment gains of approximately 190,000 on an average monthly basis are expected. While that pace is down from 2015, it is consistent with the labor market growing near its underlying trend. By year-end, unemployment should drop to 4.6%.

* Prospects for consumer spending are straightforward: more jobs equals more income, which equals more spending. However, spending will come largely from the growth in jobs and not as much from increased wages.