Commercial Real Estate Sees Mixed Results

Washington, DC, Aug. 27, 2012 -- Positive underlying fundamentals continue to support all of the major commercial real estate sectors, but a slowdown in job creation and ongoing tight loan availability has tempered growth in some areas, according to the National Association of Realtors quarterly commercial real estate forecast.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said there are mixed results among the commercial sectors.

“Job creation in the second quarter was about half of what we saw in the first quarter, which is moderating demand in the office sector,” he said.

“Industrial and warehouse space is holding on better because imports and exports have advanced. While exports to Europe generally are down, trade has been robust with India, China and other Asian nations, along with Brazil, Mexico and our strongest trading partner – Canada.”

Although still positive, dampened demand is slightly moderating rent growth with the exception of the multifamily market.

“Sharply higher demand for apartments is causing rents to rise at faster rates,” Yun said.

“A return to normal household formation will mean even lower vacancy rates and higher rents in the future.”

The current commercial real estate cycle has been driven by shifts in demand without an oversupply of new construction.

“The difficulty small businesses have in getting commercial real estate loans for leasing or purchase is keeping a lid on demand,” Yun said.

“Multifamily is the only commercial sector with a notable growth in new space, with some lending provided through government loans.”

With the exception of multifamily, vacancy rates remain above historic averages seen since 1999. Over that timeframe the typical vacancy rate has been 14.4 percent for the office market, 10.1 percent in industrial, 8.1 percent for retail and 5.8 percent in multifamily.

Vacancy rates are marginally declining and rents are modestly rising in all of the sectors, but significant changes in the outlook are unlikely before the end of the year.

Many corporate decisions on spending and job hiring are on hold given uncertainty over the upcoming elections, whether Congress will effectively avoid a “fiscal cliff,” and unsettled issues such as health care and banking/financial regulations.

"Overall companies hold plentiful cash reserves, but they are hesitant to hire without clarity over how these outstanding issues will impact the bottom line,” Yun said.

"Commercial real estate gains could be thwarted if lending from small and community banks dry up from excessive regulatory compliance costs, and if international big-bank capital rules are applied to smaller lending institutions.”



Other Archived Articles

Tight Lending Standards Still Hurting Home Builders   Full Article
Washington, DC, Oct. 9, 2014 -- Tight mortgage lending standards continue to affect sales for single-family builders, according to a survey released by the National Association of Home Builders.

Wholesale Inventories Increase in August   Full Article
Washington, DC, Oct. 9, 2014 -- U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.7% in August, according to the Commerce Department.

Initial Jobless Claims Hold Steady Last Week   Full Article
Washington, DC, Oct. 9, 2014 -- Initial jobless claims held steady at 287,000 last week, according to the Labor Department.

Quick-Step Starts Promoting Q-Wood Flooring on the Internet   Full Article
Dallas, TX, Oct. 9, 2014 -- Quick-Step developed a new website specifically for its Q-Wood category of flooring.

Mortgage Application Volume Rises Last Week   Full Article
Washington, DC, Oct. 8, 2014 -- Mortgage application volume increased 3.8% last week from the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Got You Floored on Fast 50 List in Piedmont Region   Full Article
Greensboro, NC, Oct. 8, 2014 -- -Got You Floored, Inc. was named by the Triad Business Journal to the Fast 50 for the Piedmont Triad Region in North Carolina.

Georgia Gov. Deal Visits Mohawk in Calhoun   Full Article
Calhoun, GA, Oct. 7, 2014 -- Earlier this week, Georgia Gov. Nathan Deal toured the Mohawk Flooring Center in Calhoun and spoke to employees about the importance of the flooring industry in the state of Georgia.

Interface Issues Third Quarter Earnings Warning   Full Article
New York, NY, Oct. 8, 2014 -- Shares of Interface fell 16.5% in after-hours trading Tuesday after the company announced lower-than-expected preliminary third-quarter results.

National Retail Federation Expects Holiday Sales Boost   Full Article
Washington, DC, Oct. 7, 2014 -- Retail spending during the holiday season is expected to be the highest in three years, according to a forecast by the National Retail Federation.

Job Openings Highest Since 2001   Full Article
Washington, DC, Oct. 7, 2014 -- Job openings increased to 4.84 million in August, up from 4.67 million in July, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

Builders Offering Incentives as Sales Soften   Full Article
New York, NY, Oct. 7, 2014 -- Home builders nationally have begun sweetening offers in light of slowing sales, according to a Bloomberg News story.

Domotex To Feature Installation Technology for First Time   Full Article
Hannover, Germany, Oct. 7, 2014 -- Domotex 2015 set for Jan. 17-20 will feature 1,300 exhibitors from more than 60 countries.

Fincibec Group Seeking Tile Award Entries   Full Article
Sassuolo, Italy, Oct. 6, 2014 -- The Quinquennial Tile Award, now in its fourth edition, seeking entries using the Fincibec Group's three brands, Century, Monocibec and Naxos, between Jan. 1, 2011 and Dec. 31, 2015.

Armstrong Raising Some Vinyl Prices   Full Article
Lancaster, PA, Oct. 6, 2014 -- Armstrong said it will raise prices in the U.S. and Canada on commercial vinyl composition tile and BioBased Tile by 4%, commercial wallbase by 4%, and select residential tile products.

Stifel Sees Stronger Hard Surface Sales, Weaker Carpet Sales   Full Article
New York, NY, Oct. 6, 2014 -- Analyst Stifel Nicolaus believes that third quarter flooring sales will show stronger sales of hard surface flooring and weaker sales of carpet.

NeoCon East Offers Education for Designers   Full Article
Baltimore, MD, Oct. 6, 2014 -- NeoCon East has announced its educational program for design professionals seeking continuing education.

Duncan Appointed President of Mannington's Residential Business   Full Article
Salem, NJ, Oct. 3, 2014 -- Mannington Mills announced today that Ed Duncan will replace Kim Holm, who is retiring, as president of Mannington’s Residential Business.

Services Sector Growth Slows in September   Full Article
Washington, DC, Oct. 3, 2014 -- The services sector of the economy grew at a slower pace in September, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

CRI Annual Meeting Set Nov. 12   Full Article
Dalton, GA, Oct. 3, 2014 -- The Carpet and Rug Institute's 2014 Annual Membership Meeting will be held Nov. 12.

Unemployment at Six-Year Low in September   Full Article
Washington, DC, Oct. 3, 2014 -- The unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in September as the economy created 248,000 jobs, according to the Labor Department.