Charlotte, NC, July 7, 2026—”Our group enters 2Q26 earnings expecting results to reflect weak residential construction and remodeling activity. However, we do not believe R&R trends worsened despite negative headlines and higher gas prices. The biggest risk is price/cost pressure, as rising petro costs outpaced pricing actions, especially in commercial roofing…” reports Truist.
“New Construction and R&R Remain Weak… As evidenced by macro data and companies in our coverage, these markets have remained weak during the first half of the year. Single-family starts are down about 6% through May and have yet to see a meaningful inflection while remodel activity as represented by the NAHB Remodel Market Index (RMI) continues to plot along at trough levels.
“…But Have Not Gotten Any Worse During War. Usually a combination of negative headlines, higher gas prices, and higher interest rates on inflation fears means falling demand in our group. This was not the case in our coverage as demand trends seemed to be more or less flat sequentially. While still down year over year, the fact that results did not get worse is modest win for the group.
“Data Centers Still Rule Commercial Construction and Are Starting to Move the Needle. For many names in our coverage, commercial construction has been a significant driver of financial performance over recent quarters with data centers being a developing story.
“War in Iran Ends January Rally Pushing Group into YTD Declines. The group has meaningfully underperformed the market over the first half of 2026, down nearly 3% YTD with the S&P up nearly 10%, as interest rates have remained elevated, and consumer confidence has yet to return. The group experienced a dramatic rally in January as interest rates briefly declined while continued housing policy talks in Washington fueled excitement about increased affordability heading into the selling season. The start of the war in Iran quickly ended this rally and pushed the group’s performance below that of the S&P as higher petrochemical prices played into inflationary fears which sent interest rates back higher. This also caused more consumer uncertainty which pressured housing activity just as the selling season was starting. Despite the Iran conflict coming to an end, the group remains well below the broader market through June.”
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